I have spent close to twenty years working on food systems governance across this continent, and I have learned that the most revealing conversations often happen in the margins of grand forums over coffee, between sessions, in the quiet moments when the PowerPoint slides have faded, and the real talk begins.
At the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali this September, the margins were buzzing. The numbers on the slides were stark, but the conversations were starker.
Africa spends between $70 billion and $100 billion every year importing food. Let that sink in. We are not talking about a modest trade imbalance. We are talking about a hemorrhage of foreign exchange, a structural dependency that shapes everything from our trade policy to our diplomatic posture.
And yet, as I walked through the exhibition halls and listened to farmers, processors, and policymakers, I kept returning to a question that has haunted this continent for decades: Why do we import what we could grow, and export what we do not eat?
The Paradox on a Plate
Let me be specific about what we are importing.
Wheat and rice dominate the bill. In the 2026-27 marketing year, Africa is projected to import approximately 62 million tonnes of wheat and 20 million tonnes of rice. Sub-Saharan Africa alone will import around 32.8 million tonnes of wheat, while its domestic production hovers around just 10 million tonnes. Rice imports into sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach 1,928 million tonnes, equivalent to roughly 45% of the region’s consumption.
The volume is staggering. But the value is what should keep us up at night.
FAO data shows that Africa’s cereal imports reached 111.7 million tonnes in the 2026-2027 campaign. Cereals alone account for approximately $21.9 billion of the import bill. When you add dairy, meat, processed foods, and edible oils, the picture becomes even more alarming.
What makes this especially painful is the nature of the imports. A significant portion of the bill consists of processed products that could, in principle, be produced domestically from locally-grown raw materials. Tomato paste from China and Italy competes with Nigerian tomatoes that spoil in the field. Milk powder from Europe competes with East African fresh milk that lacks industrial processing capacity. Chocolate manufactured in Switzerland and Belgium captures the value of cocoa grown in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
This is not an abstract economic inefficiency. It is a structural failure that has persisted for generations.
The Numbers Tell a Story of Escalation
The growth trend is not encouraging. In 2015, Africa’s food import bill stood at approximately $35 billion. By 2025, it had more than doubled to over $110 billion in some projections. The African Development Bank data shows the bill doubling from $35 billion in 2015 to $75 billion within seven years, with projections exceeding $110 billion by 2025.
Let me put this in perspective. Sub-Saharan Africa’s net food imports are projected to increase by 55% by 2035, driven by rapid population growth and rising demand. The share of imports in total consumption is expected to rise from 20% to 22% over the same period.
This is not a trajectory we can afford to accept.
The Real Reasons Behind the Bill
The naive explanation is that Africa cannot produce enough food. That is false.
Africa holds approximately 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. We have about one-fifth of the world’s cattle but produce only 5% of global milk output. The productivity gap is not a function of natural endowment. It is a function of systems.
As Professor Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Chair of Council at Zimbabwe National University of Science and Technology, observed at the forum, Africa’s challenge is no longer a shortage of resources. The challenge is scale, productivity, and the systems that connect the two.
But there is a deeper structural explanation. The colonial and post-colonial pattern of trade has been remarkably persistent: Africa exports raw commodities at low prices and imports processed products at high prices. Over 70% of agricultural exports leave the continent in raw or minimally processed form. This pattern suppresses local food diversity and forces Africa to import foods it could cultivate itself.
Post-harvest losses compound the problem. Between 30% and 40% of Africa’s food production is lost before it reaches a plate. In East Africa, farmers lose between 30% and 40% of their produce annually due to inadequate storage and handling systems. We are not only failing to produce enough we are failing to preserve what we do produce.
Voices from Kigali: The Call for Action
The AFSF 2026 was not short on candor.
Moses Vilakati, African Union Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment, did not mince words. “We must confront the reality,” he said. “Africa spends a lot to import food, yet we have the resources.” And then, with a clarity that should guide every policy decision on the continent: “Every carton of milk and every kilogram of meat should represent an opportunity for African farmers.” He added: “We must reduce food imports. Africa should become a proper processor of food. Not an importer.”
Rwandan Prime Minister Dr. Justin Nsengiyumva, opening the forum, called for a fundamental shift: “Africa has enormous agricultural potential but must urgently turn its resources into productivity and prosperity.” He urged a move from viewing agriculture as a traditional sector to positioning it as a modern source of jobs, entrepreneurship, and innovation.
Appolinaire Djikeng, Director-General of the International Livestock Research Institute, identified the core challenge with precision: “Africa doesn’t lack solutions for its livestock sector. What it lacks is scale and productivity.” He noted that closing the gap between production and imports could unlock Africa’s estimated $1 trillion annual agribusiness potential.
Alice Ruhweza, President of AGRA, reflected on two decades of effort: “20 years ago, we began with a clear conviction. That African smallholder farmers were not just waiting to be saved,” she said. “They were waiting for the conditions around them to work soils, seeds, science, knowledge, markets, finance, policy, partnerships.”
And Wamkele Mene, Secretary-General of the AfCFTA, issued a direct challenge to governments: build cross-border food corridors or keep losing billions to food imports.
How We Reverse the Bill
The question is not whether Africa can substitute its food imports. The question is how quickly and at what scale.
First, we must invest in processing and value addition. Nigeria’s Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones program is a model worth studying. The African Development Bank reports that Nigeria cut its wheat import bill by $500 million through targeted subsidies for improved seeds and fertilizers between 2022 and 2025. Ethiopia’s milk production rose from 7.1 billion litres in 2022 to 15.7 billion litres in 2025/26 a 122% increase through the Yelemat Tirufat initiative. These are not miracles. They are the result of deliberate policy and investment.
Second, we must build regional food corridors. The AfCFTA Secretariat and AGRA have signed an agreement to facilitate the movement of agricultural goods across Africa and reduce non-tariff barriers. The objective is clear: reduce the cost of food imports by linking food corridors and food baskets into agro-processing zones. The potential is enormous. With consistent implementation, intra-African agricultural trade could increase by over 50% by 2045.
Third, we must address post-harvest losses. The AfCFTA reports that Africa loses 49 million metric tonnes of maize, wheat, and rice annually, worth $7 billion. Reducing these losses is not just an agricultural intervention; it is an import substitution strategy.
Fourth, we must shift our consumption patterns. Cassava, rice, maize, and wheat account for 45% of the calories consumed across Africa. This narrow dependence on a few staples makes us vulnerable. We need to diversify what we grow and what we eat, promoting indigenous crops abd livestovk that are climate-resilient and nutrient-dense.
What Africa Can Offer in Return
The food import bill is not just a cost. It is also a signal of demand. And demand, if properly harnessed, is an opportunity.
Africa’s food and agribusiness market is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. The continent’s demand for animal-source foods alone is expected to increase by 280% by 2050. This is not a problem to be solved. It is a market to be captured.
What Africa can offer in return for its current import bill is not just raw materials, but processed goods, value-added products, and regional trade. The AfCFTA creates a market of 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion. The promise lies in harmonisation, tariff reduction, trade facilitation, and the elimination of non-tariff barriers.
But this will not happen automatically. As Arne Cartridge, Special Adviser at Yara, warned: “If we stay as 54 fragmented markets, I don’t think we will get the scale that is required.”
The Next Chapter
The Managing Director of the Africa Food Systems Forum told delegates that the next 20 years will be critical for Africa because food import bills will likely double or be halved depending on the policy decisions we implement. That is not a prediction. It is a choice.
For too long, Africa has produced what it does not eat and eaten what it does not produce. This is not a destiny. It is a design flaw, a flaw we have the power to correct.
The Kigali forum made one thing clear: the solutions exist. The resources exist. The demand exists. What we need now is the political will, the investment, and the systems thinking to connect them.
The next chapter, as the forum’s Managing Director put it, must be “more than just bringing people to rooms.” It must be about building the corridors, the processing plants, the cold chains, and the markets that turn Africa’s agricultural potential into food sovereignty.
The bill is $100 billion. The opportunity is $1 trillion.
The choice is ours.